Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ATI) shares are trading higher today as investors pounce on speculation that ATI may be a takeover target. One possible company mentioned as a suitor for ATI is US Steel (NYSE: X). If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ATI.
After hitting a one-year high of $119.7 last April, the stock hit a one-year low of $59.00 in January. ATI opened this morning at $79.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $79.00 and a high of $84.22. As of 1:15, ATI is trading at $83.39, up $3.39 (4.3%). The chart for ATI looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.
ThinkEquity upgraded Syniverse Holdings Inc (NYSE: SVR) to Buy from Accumulate citing growth from further price reductions and adoption of new technologies that will drive transaction volumes.
Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (NYSE: ATI) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.The firm upgraded Allegheny based on valuation, low stainless steel inventories, and nickel price stabilization.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Napster Inc (NASDAQ: NAPS) was upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Bear Stearns.
Investors were pleased with the earnings news from specialty metals manufacturer Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (NYSE: ATI). They bid the stock up some 6% Tuesday, January 29 despite the fact that shipments and operating profits in 4Q2007 slipped and are expected to continue to be soft in 1Q2008.
For the year, Allegheny Technologies posted record sales of $5.45 billion, up 10%. Net income shot up 30% to a record $747 million. Cash flow increased by $121 million so that the company has more cash than debt, operating profit increased by 23%, EPS hit $7.26, and international sales topped $1.5 billion, another record. As a result, Allegheny Technologies initiated a half-billion dollar stock buy-back program and raised the dividend for the third straight year.
Overall, the picture looks good, but there are some negatives. Raw material costs continue to increase. Demand for stainless steel products was "extraordinarily weak," offset in part by stronger demand for tungsten and tungsten carbide products. Demand remains strong in the commercial aerospace and defense segments which results in strong demand for titanium based products for aircraft frames. Supply chain uncertainties with the Boeing 787 Dreamliner, however, may curtail operating profits in that segment.
Given its diverse product offerings, its expanding joint centure in China, Allegheny Technologies appears able to withstand whatever the U.S. economy will do in the coming months.
NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA:) is a company that seeks to win the game by constantly staying ahead of its competitors. One of the big three companies, along with Advanced Micro Devices' ATI Products and Technologies Division (NYSE:AMD) and Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) that sell highly advanced graphics microchips for computing applications of all types, NVIDIA is unique among them because it puts its primary focus on research and development -- even outsourcing production -- to make sure that in a world where technical advancement moves at the speed of light, it remains the most innovative of an innovative trio.
So while both Intel and AMD's ATI Division maintain a good competitive position against NVIDIA's GeForce chips in the desktop market -- although NVIDIA is still leading there too -- the company blows its competition away in other categories. For example, the company controls 60% of the market for notebook computers, makes the chip used in the new Playstation 3, and, in January of 2007, acquired a company that will make it easier to use its chips in a variety of handheld devices, including PDAs and smartphones. There are even applications for its products in unexpected fields, like industrial design, film production, and medical imaging.
The other day, Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ATI), the largest stainless steel producer in the U.S., experienced a steep decline in share price. This company produces not just stainless steel but also titanium and other materials, as well as develops engineered products used in cutting tools and diecasting, usually to be used in the aerospace, automotive, and appliance sectors.
When the investor sees a fall in share price, there are two conclusions. Sometimes these types of price drops are warranted; sometimes they scream to the savvy investor: opportunity! This is a case of the latter. The reason for the drop the other day was a company report that stainless steel and nickel prices were volatile and falling, which then negatively impacted its stainless steel segment. This report prompted share prices to fall by $10 -- well beyond what I feel was warranted.
In addition to falling prices, ATI's prospects were dampened recently when Boeing announced that it would deliver its Dreamliner 787 planes six months later than expected. Each plane required 250 THOUSAND pounds of nickel, which ATI was going to supply, so this is a blow. Provided this delay doesn't get extended, I don't see it affecting ATI in the long turn. The management is solid, and demand for its specialty metal product isn't going away.
Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ATI) is plunging today after the company cut its 2007 forecast this morning, citing weak demand for stainless sheet steel. This is one example of an industrial goods manufacturer getting caught as the credit crunch potentially slows down economic expansion. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on ATI.
After hitting a one-year high of $119.70 in April, the stock has been volatile over the past few months. This morning, ATI opened at $97.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $92.80 and a high of $97.54. As of 10:55, ATI is trading at $95.50, down $11.15 (-10.5%). The chart for ATI was bullish and steady before today's dive, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November bear-call credit spread above the $115 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.5% return in 5 weeks as long as ATI is below $115 at November expiration. Allegheny Tech. would have to rise by more than 20% before we would start to lose money.
ATI has not been above $115 by more than a few cents at a time since April and has shown some resistance around $112 recently. This trade could be risky if the industrial goods market turns around, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the resistance the stock formed around $115 over the past few months, plus the big drop it suffered this morning.
Seems Cramer was right when he said to buy BEA Systems before it gets a bid Monday. Today Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) indeed said it has proposed to buy business software maker BEA Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: BEAS) for more than $6.66 billion. If you had listened to Cramer, you could have sold your BEAS shares today 22% higher as indicated by premarket action.
Morgan Stanley upped Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) shares target price from $150 to $180, saying the "iPhone will drive more ancillary revenue than it previously modeled." AAPL shares are up nearly half a percent in premarket trading.
McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) has revised its third quarter earnings to 89 cents per share (83 cents from continuing operations and a gain of 6 cents a share) as momentum continues. The fast food chain has posted a 5.9% climb in September global same-store sales. Sales for its restaurants worldwide rose 11.5% in the month. European same-store sales grew 5.7% in the month.
Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ATI) warned its earnings will be lower than expected in the second half of the year, and forecast full-year earnings well below Wall Street estimates. Soft demand for standard stainless sheet was cited as the reason. Third-quarter earnings will range between $1.85 and $1.88 per share, the company said, while Wall Street expected $1.96 per share. No doubt shares could come under pressure.
Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) shares are down 1.3% in premarket trading after Enskilda downgraded Nokia to Hold from Buy, saying it believes strong third-quarter results are already priced in the shares.
General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) sold nearly 2 1/2 times the number of cars it sold in India in the same period last year, despite a sharp rise in interest rates. GM's market share in India has grown to 3.6%, topping Ford Motor Co.'s (NYSE: F).
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) yesterday said it is cutting positions at its investment banking division after suffering Wall Street's biggest slump in the leveraged loan market.
Another toy recall was announced yesterday, this time hitting J.C. Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP) and shares closed down nearly 7%. More than 90,000 children's products, most imported by J.C. Penney are being recalled for containing dangerous levels of lead.
Well, here we are. In our fantasy, self-kicking portfolio that just-so-happened to invest 100% in each year's best-performing stock, we're at the half-billion mark. Just think how much better off we'd be if our 10-year period began in 1988 and capped off with our 2587% rally in Qualcomm! I guess we'll have to settle for a measly $1 billion.... J.K. Rowling is somehow managing to live off a similar fortune.
Here's a review of all the previous steps we took to get to $1 billion:
In 2006, the top stock was Akamai Technologies (again!), but for the sake of variety, we'll look at the first runner-up, Pittsburgh-based steel company Allegheny Technologies (NYSE: ATI). Last year, the stock was in the news after paying $17 million to acquire Garryson Limited from Elliott Industries. At the beginning of 2006, ATI was trading at $36.40. With the dollars in our portfolio, we purchased 12,332,536 shares to hold on to through the end of the year.
Outperformance in the base-metals sector and a strong final quarter helped lift ATI shares to $90.68, closing 2006 with a 149% gain. Lo and behold, our fantasy portfolio stood at $1,118,314,364. More than $1 billion in just 10 years.
As I said at the beginning of this exercise, it's an incredible stroke of good fortune to invest in the best-performing stock of a single year, let alone for 10 years running. So while nothing is impossible, the actions performed by this portfolio come pretty darn close. Still, it's a fun experiment to see that aggressive money management and picture-perfect stock selections can result in massive portfolio growth.
Thanks for reading! Now go figure out what the top stock of 2008 will be and shoot me an email.
Specialty metals producer Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ATI) is in the very enviable position of having record demand for its products despite rising prices averaging 4-39% for those same products. First off, the stock is up almost 30% for the year, opening the year at $88.45, and closing on July 13 at $114.97, up $.67. Analysts consider $125 to be a fair target, so there is still plenty of movement left in the stock. Its P/E of 16.85 is significantly below industry average, while its 6.47 EPS is very much above industry average. Return on stockholders equity is above 50%, and the company has half a billion dollars on hand in case it likes the look of other companies to acquire.
Allegheny Technologies recently posted record quarterly profits for 1Q 2007. Sales increased 32% to $1.37 billion. Net income increased a whopping 86% to $198 million, about $1.92 per share, almost double the net income of 1Q 2006. Demand for its higher priced titanium-based products has reached record levels in the aerospace and defense industries. Demand of what CEO L. Patrick Hassey terms "exotic alloys" is at a record level. ATI is building additional capacity to service this demand, which shows no signs of abating, despite significant increases in the costs of raw metal materials. ATI has instituted cost containment measures to help counteract the hike in raw material prices.
ATI consists of three main product divisions. High Performance Metals is the largest division and deals primarily with titanium related metals used in aircraft construction. Despite capacity expansion, this division is facing record backlog orders to satisfy demand. Sales in this division increased 35% to $477 million for 1Q 2007. Sales in the Flat-Rolled Products division increased 20.4% for an operating profit of $160 million, despite a noticeable decline in shipments of commodity stainless sheet metals. The Engineered Products division deals with tungsten-related products. ATI is currently expanding capacity for this division and hopes to increase production significantly by the end of 2Q 2007. ATI posted revenues in excess of $5 billion for the most recent four quarters, and expects that figure to increase as 2Q 2007 figures surpass record levels set in 1Q 2007. There does not seem to be a downside to this stock at this time.
"At first glance, the upcoming Airbus A380 and the Boeing 787 Dreamliner planes look much like existing commercial models – but nothing could be further from the truth," says energy and resource industry expert Elliott Gue.
In Personal Finance, the editor notes, "Both are 20% to 30% more fuel efficient than any planes currently flying, due largely to lightweight composite materials."
Composites, he notes, are formed from two dissimilar materials -- usually a reinforcing fiber and an adhesive epoxy or resin, with carbon-fiber composite being the most commonly used in aircraft construction.
And it's not just airplanes that use these advanced materials; Gue observes, "Wind-power blades, oil rigs and sporting equipment all use high-strength, space-age materials. That spells soaring demand and solid growth for a handful of companies involved in their manufacture."
For those looking to invest in the "composite" industry, the advisor offers a trio of ideas. First is Hexcel (NYSE: HXL), the world's largest producer of "prepregs" for the aerospace industry. Prepregs, he explains, are woven carbon-fiber sheets that when chilled remain flexible and can be bent to shape or pressed into molds.
Gue says, "Outside aerospace, the wind power industry is fast becoming Hexcel's most important source of revenues. In fact, wind power is the company's fastest-growing major source of revenue; Hexcel projects at least mid-teens growth from that line this year.
On today's STOP TRADING! segment on CNBC, Cramer said The Kroger Co. (NYSE:KR) is a play. With Kroger at $29 after a B of A upgrade said it could beat for years to come. The case against Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is so fabulous that everyone wants in. He commented that when Lee Scott is finally dethroned, this wouldn't necessarily happen, but now the store is not what it once was. Lee Scott was one of 24/7 Wall St.'s TOP CEO's THAT HAVE TO GO from December.
Cramer adores Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE:ATI). He said this one is in the sweet spot and it is positioned to work every single aspect of the economy and its metal will stand up to corrosive effects of ethanol.
If you want to know why Cramer was out Friday night, it looks like he fractured his foot. Jon Ogg is a partner in 24/7 Wall St., LLC; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.
Best & Worst Stocks of 2006 Allegheny Technologies led the S&P 500, while Whole Foods Market came in last. But fortunes are bound to change in 2007. Other winners include OfficeMax, Big Lots, DirecTV and BellSouth. Other losers include Yahoo, AMD, Intel and eBay. Best and Worst Stocks of 2006 Also:YEAR-END REVIEW OF MARKETS AND FINANCE - WSJ.com
4 Painless Financial Resolutions Getting your personal finances in order sounds like a task best left to the closet organizers. But there are many ways you can improve your financial security without exerting much effort, or even spending much money. Here are some no-sweat resolutions for 2007: Order a free credit report, invest your tax refund in an IRA, diversify your 401(k) and don't leave money on the table. Top off your New Year's list with 4 nearly painless financial resolutions - USATODAY.com Also:7 Steps to a More Prosperous 2007
Do-It-Yourself Divorce, Billionaire Style Tim and Edra Blixseth spent 25 years building a $2 billion life together, and then divided it all up in a single afternoon, over a bottle of wine, when they decided to divorce. Unlike most wealthy spouses who follow the greed principle the Blixseth's tried a different path. The Wealth Report - WSJ.com
Financially Fit Fido U.S. consumers spent $36.3 billion on their animals in 2005, up from just $17 billion in 1994. That jump hasn't been fueled so much by pet-cost inflation as by human shopping weakness. Here are 13 tips for saving money on escalating pet costs. Thirteen tips for saving money on escalating pet costs - MarketWatch
Stock futures are mixed in early morning trade, pointing to a similar start for the S&P 500 and a lower start for the Nasdaq.
A few economic reports are due out today that could affect trading while homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL) said when reporting financial results this morning that it appears the housing slump has bottomed out.
Economic data will begin pouring when at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, third-quarter productivity and unit labor costs will be revised up to 0.5% gain from a flat initial reading. At 10:00 a.m., October factory orders will be reported with an expected 4% decline. The November Institute of Supply Management survey is also due at that time and is expected to decline to 55.5% from 57.1%.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index reached a new 52-week high yesterday with Bank of New York (NYSE:BK) stock surging 12% to close at $39.75 and Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ATI) stocks gaining nearly 7% percent, to finish at $93.92. LSI Logic Corp. (NYSE:LSI) shares on the other hand, fell nearly 14%, to close at $9.12.
Today also, New York City is set to vote on the blanket ban on trans fat use in all restaurants, eateries and bakeries.
Companies making the headlines today:
Luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:TOL) reported its fourth-quarter financial results. Profit was lower, down by 44%. Earnings fell to $173.8 million, or $1.07 per share, beating analyst forecast by a penny.
Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F) will offer about $3 billion 30-year unsecured senior convertible notes. Ford will also sell its climate control business to Valeo SA, a French automotive supply company, contingent on agreements with the UAW. Ford shares are down more than 1.5% in pre-market.
Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ:SIRI) lowered its year-end 2006 subscriber forecast late last night, due to lower sales since Thanksgiving than the company had anticipated. SIRI stocks are down nearly 6.5% in pre-market.
Reckson Associates Realty Corp. (NYSE:RA) turned down a $4.3 billion takeover proposal from the investor Carl Icahn, preferring a similar takeover proposal from S.L. Green Realty (NYSE:SLG).
On tonight's episode of MAD MONEY on CNBC, host Jim Cramer discussed his stock of the year. It is up and still going higher.
Back on January 3 he picked Allegheny Tech (ATI) when it was at $36.05 and now it is up at $88. He picked it because of the titanium operations from aircraft expansions. He said if you have held this a long time it time to take half off the table, but you can still buy this stock if you haven't bought it yet.
You don't have to sell Allegheny or avoid it just because it has more than doubled. He thinks this is still worth owning because of stainless steel and titanium because they serve industries that are still strong.
The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) locked in $2.5 billion of the company's supply just last week. It is still cheap on forward multiples to any fund manager in the world.
Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE: ATI) shares are trading higher today as investors pounce on speculation that ATI may be a takeover target. One possible company mentioned as a suitor for ATI is US Steel (NYSE: X). If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ATI.
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Seems Cramer was right when he said to 
Well, here we are. In our fantasy, self-kicking 
Stock futures are mixed in early morning trade, pointing to a similar start for the S&P 500 and a lower start for the Nasdaq.
Oil hits record $127.43 on supply concerns, raised Goldman forecast
Icahn's 'shock and awe' on Yahoo -- a gutsy play
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